Is a Russian submarine lurking in Swedish waters?

The BBC:

Naval vessels searching Swedish waters for a suspected foreign submarine are focusing on a bay near the capital Stockholm on the fifth day of the biggest such operation in years. Ships equipped to detect submarines are among at least five vessels searching Ingaro Bay. One Swedish newspaper said that a ship had “made contact” but there was no official comment on the report. Russia has denied that any of its vessels are involved. A Russian oil tanker has been sailing in international waters nearby, raising suspicion that it was there to help a submarine in difficulty.

This sort of thing used to happen from time to time during the Cold War, most famously on the entertaining occasion when a Soviet Whiskey-class submarine ran aground on the rocks near the naval base at Karlskrona, Sweden’s largest.

Then the embarrassment was Moscow’s. Now it is Stockholm’s.

Foreign Policy:

In carrying out their search, the Swedish authorities are being severely hampered by their lack of sonar-equipped helicopters. Because the Stockholm archipelago is a dense island landscape, it has become something of a notorious playground for submarines, which have ample natural features behind which to hide and evade surface vessels. Unlike ships moving on the surface, helicopters have a distinct advantage in tracking down submarines, which have great difficulty monitoring aircraft while underwater. A helicopter can quickly cover large areas, surprising submarines by dropping sonar sensors. But Sweden’s fleet of anti-submarine helicopters were phased out in 2008, and the replacement isn’t expected until 2018.

Sweden’s recently departed center-right government, and more specifically its enthusiastically europhile foreign minister Carl Bildt, used to make something of a specialty of tough foreign-policy talk, expressions of concern (most notably on Ukraine) and the projection of the EU’s soft power.

But soft power is generally more effective when backed up by a cudgel in the back pocket, something that the Swedes forgot. The strategic climate in the Baltic region has been deteriorating for some years, but very little was done to restore defense spending: carelessness and complacency ruled. That’s worth remembering when re-reading some of Mr. Bildt’s fine words over Ukraine.

And now, delightfully, it is left to Sweden’s new center-left government to sort out the mess, a job for which it is not, perhaps, the most natural candidate.

The Financial Times explains:

Sweden’s prime minister pledged to increase spending on defence in Thursday’s budget as the Nordic country’s search for a foreign submarine entered a fifth day.
Sweden’s new centre-left government has been placed in an awkward situation by the chase for the submarine – presumed to be Russian – as it is firmly against NATO membership and wants to focus more on co-operation with the UN rather than partnership with the western military alliance.

Co-operation with the U.N.?

Oh dear.