Chris Wilson, polling guru for the pro-Ron DeSantis PAC Never Back Down, released on Wednesday an analysis of third-party surveys. These surveys were conducted by his firm, WPA Intelligence, and were related to the prospect of Donald Trump’s renomination to lead the GOP and his candidacy’s effects on Republicans running for offices farther down the ballot. That outcome, Wilson contends, would be another “disaster for Republicans in competitive seats.”
By one study’s estimate, Trump’s endorsement alone had a measurably negative effect on Republicans in competitive races in 2018 — already a structurally difficult year for the GOP. “By their estimation,” Wilson wrote, “Trump cost Republicans at least 15 seats (11 in the House and four in the Senate).” That effect is compounded by the significant fundraising boost a Democrat facing a Trump-backed candidate can expect to enjoy as a result of the former president’s endorsement:
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