I have written before about the shootings in Sulaymani, Iraqi Kurdistan, when Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s nephew had his anti-terrorism squad open fire on an opposition political rally. Agence France Presse and the pan-Arabic daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat both reported on the incident.

Now we have word on what has so upset the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Jalal Talabani’s political party.

It seems that former Kurdistan Regional Government prime minister Nechervan Barzani, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), has made clear that the KDP would leave “all options open” with regard to its coalition. In other words, the KDP is signaling that it might ditch the PUK and form an alliance with the Change List. This would, in effect, mean the end of the political careers of Jalal Talabani, Kosrat Rasul, and Barham Salih, as well as Qubad Talabani. Kurdish politics is largely about money; the Talabanis are loath to be separated from the gravy train and won’t give it up without a fight. Unfortunately, violence in Iraqi Kurdistan will likely escalate in the near term.

Separately, it will be interesting to see if the Change List, once in power, will live up to its anti-corruption rhetoric.

As for PUK officials, Jalal Talabani’s career will likely end after the March 7 elections. Officials with both Da’wa and the Iraqi National Alliance told me on my recent trip that Talabani was a lame duck; why should anyone who can’t manage his own house expect to manage a country?

Kosrat Rasul, Barham Salih’s predecessor as PUK prime minister, is also likely finished. Kosrat’s in ill health anyway, and, while he has residual popularity among PUK peshmerga, the KDP hates him.

Barham Salih, a favorite in Washington, is currently prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, but he is a lame duck. His own office staff — largely imposed on him by Barzani — refuses to carry out Barham’s orders. Barham’s long-term ambition may be to head up a UN agency, but his recent efforts to sue journalists who criticized him and his ‘let-them-eat-cake’ attitude after the shootings in Sulaymani may hurt his chances.

Qubad Talabani’s fortunes, both in business and in politics, are linked to his father’s. The KDP — both Nechervan, with whom Qubad has formed a short-term alliance, and Masud Barzani — absolutely despise Qubad’s mother, Herro Ibrahim Ahmad. As soon as Jalal is no longer around, the Barzanis will turn on Qubad who will likely become persona non grata in Kurdistan. This, of course, will have an impact on investment deals brokered through Qubad. U.S. investors will find their money lost unless they have included a Barzani rather than a Talabani as their silent partner.