Fred Barnes:

On fiscal issues, Democrats foolishly dismissed the president’s insistence on cutting $22 billion from overall discretionary spending, claiming it was a puny amount. To them, it is. To the public, it’s not. A veto war on spending bills is likely to work in Mr. Bush’s favor, though not if weak-willed congressional Republicans cut and run. Should it lead to a government shutdown–call it the shutdown trap–that would be all the more harmful to Democrats.

I’m not sure what the basis for this confidence is, but I’ve heard it from a lot of Republicans over the last few months.