Well, well, well.
Just a few days after the Trump administration announced an end to the way in which federal fuel-efficiency rules were being abused to force buyers of new cars to “choose” electric vehicles, it appears that the EU may be easing a little on its own even more draconian war on the internal combustion engine. Under current EU rules, purchases of new conventional cars (as well as, incredibly, hybrids) will be banned from 2035. This date is reportedly to be pushed back to 2040.
It should be noted that the 2035 ban is being preceded by an increasingly onerous quota regime designed to operate as a form of creeping prohibition.
Quotas?
As I described in a Capital Letter in September 2024:
Some years ago, officials in the EU, UK, California, and other dim-bulb jurisdictions came up with the idea of imposing a quota system on automakers. The idea was to encourage them to switch more rapidly to electric vehicle (EV) production. The authorities would stipulate that a certain (increasing) percentage of a carmaker’s sales must be made up of EVs by certain dates. If a carmaker did not satisfy its EV quota in any given year, then it would pay a “fine” for every conventional car it sold above the ceiling that was the flip side of the quota. To oversimplify, if sales of EVs were required to be 20 percent of sales, but only accounted for 18 percent of those actually sold, the car company would pay a fine on every traditional car it sold beyond the “ceiling” that would have kept EVs at 20 percent of the total.
But now there are reports of trouble in the EU’s green paradise.
The [London] Sunday Times reported that carmakers have had confirmation that the Brussels ban will be pushed back from its current date of 2035, citing Tim Tozer, UK chairman of insurer and roadside assistance firm Allianz Partners, and unnamed executives. . . .
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has faced pressure from Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, and leaders of other countries with large car industries to ease off on the clampdown.
If the report is true, it is about time. As I noted in that Capital Letter:
European manufacturers are moving production to China to manufacture cheaper (€20,000 or less) models, a familiar pattern — green jobs are created in China (see solar and wind) — and ominous news for those working in (or supplying) the EU auto sector. According to those same EU officials, some 13 million jobs in that area are at risk. Think for a moment what that would mean for the EU’s social and political stability if those jobs were to start disappearing. Oh yes, if EVs were to be bought by drivers on the planners’ schedule they would account for 13.5 per cent of total electricity demand by 2035. According to the Financial Times, that would involve investing €800 billion in transmission grids alone. Chump change!
One thing to watch about the EU’s shift (if it happens) will be what changes are made to its quota system. In 2023, the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak moved the date on which the U.K. banned the sale of new conventional cars (yes, and hybrids) from 2030 to 2035, but (as I reported at the time) Sunak did not change the “pathway” (quotas) that went with the approaching ban:
On September 23 [2023], I wrote that it would be “nuts to extend the ban’s deadline to 2035 (to be clear, it’s nuts to have any mandate), and then not extend the phase-in” (the pathway) that came with it.
Five days later, the government opted for nuts, or something close to it, announcing a pathway that reduced the extension to 2035 to little more than a gesture designed to deceive the electorate. . . .
If the EU is indeed changing its rules, it will be worth keeping an eye on the small print.