The conventional wisdom is that Starmer failed by letting things drift. If only.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is to step down in September. When an authoritarian loses authority within his own party, it is time to go, and so Starmer is going. To resign as prime minister at a time when his or her party commands a large parliamentary majority (if little respect in the country) is particularly humiliating.
The conventional wisdom is that Starmer failed by letting things drift. If only. He failed by presiding over a government that has been all too active, with consequences that are making Britain worse off politically, economically, and as a society. The voters noticed, to which Starmer has mainly responded by trying, via censorship initiatives, to shut them up. However, his MPs were starting to think about the next election, even though it does not need to take place until 2029. Eyeing Labour’s dismal polling, they were getting too restless to be ignored.
Candidates to replace Starmer were beginning to emerge. When the most dangerous among them, the seemingly much more personable (low bar) Andy Burnham, an ex-MP turned mayor of Greater Manchester, was reelected to Parliament in a special election last week, the end was nigh. Dull but not a dullard, Starmer has now tried to cling to some dignity by avoiding a fight he was likely to lose.
Will Burnham become Starmer’s successor? Probably. If he does, will he call a snap general election to capitalize both on any political honeymoon and the continuing divisions on the British right? Possibly. The fact that the U.K. may well be headed toward a financial crisis could also be a good reason to get an election in first.
What sort of prime minister will Burnham be? He’s widely thought of as a political chameleon, but I’d guess that he will take Labour somewhat further to the left (which would please many of its MPs) while trying to camouflage the awfulness of its policies with a patina of managerialism — and with salesmanship smoother than anything Starmer could achieve.
The pound fell on the news of Starmer’s fall (and Burnham’s likely rise). Fair enough.