One thing I find quite notable is Kerry’s fealty to his base–not just the liberal party activists, but the Democratic apparatchiks. When they say pick Edwards, he asks, How quickly? When they say, Hit back hard at Bush-Cheney, he does it with that stupid rally. Conservatives, meanwhile, have pleaded with the White House for months to outline a domestic agenda, only to be told, again and again, We’re going to wait until the convention and then start spelling it out. No amount of whining made the Bushies budge.

What does that mean for now? I think the obvious thing for Kerry to do is to hit Bush on Social Security. Ideally, he would wait until the closing days of the campaign to take that tack–as Gore did in 2000, when his ads were pretty effective. But I don’t think that Kerry has the luxury of waiting given the restiveness of his base.

I still think the electorate is evenly divided, albeit tilting toward the Republicans. Kerry cannot afford to have a large number of his supporters conclude that he has lost. Challengers can find their backers getting demoralized more easily than incumbents can, unless the incumbent’s situation is as grim as 1992. If Kerry starts to look like a loser, he will start losing voters to Nader. He’s got to take his best shots starting now.