ABC’s Michael Falcone wonders if Michael Steele will decline a bid for reelection as chair of the Republican National Committee. Steele’s prolonged absence from the political arena suggests he’s less certain to run than some think:

“I just don’t see how he is going to run,” said GOP national committeeman Solomon Yue of Oregon, adding that Steele’s decision to skip a candidate forum in Washington last week organized by a Tea Party-affiliated group, and the RNC’s Conservative Caucus, did not bode well for his re-election prospects.

That said, Yue is an unabashed critic of Steele, and Falcone quotes one of Steele’s supporters who believes he will run:

“Nothing’s changed for me on the issue,” Hughes, a newly-elected member of the Michigan state legislature said. “I don’t care how many candidates get in or what the issue is. I’ve picked the guy who’s proven he can do the job.”

Still, Steele’s chances are deteriorating by the day. National Journal’s Reid Wilson reports that Steele’s “island firewall” — that is, his solid support among the 18 representatives of U.S. territories on the RNC — is crumbling. The chairman can no longer depend upon the Puerto Rican delegation:

That delegation includes Gov. Luis Fortuno, Zori Fonalledas and Carlos Mendez. The three have agreed they will not vote for Steele, according to several sources briefed on their group decision.

When I spoke to roughly a dozen committee members last week, I noticed that Steele drew support from small states such as Montana and Connecticut. Now that these members have jumped the Steele ship, it’ll be interesting to see where representatives of small states end up.