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Another way Iowa could have a huge impact is if one of the frontrunners finishes 4th or lower. Huckabee’s emergence means there are five candidates with a reasonable shot at placing in the top three in Iowa. Two of them won’t make the cut, which would likely be fatal as it was to Dick Gephardt in 2004, Phil Gram in 1996, and Jack Kemp in 1988. If the fourth place guy turns out to be Giuliani or Thompson it could radically alter this race.