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Everybody assumes Huckabee is going to cruise in South Carolina, but I am not so sure. In the two post-Iowa polls of SC Huckabee is getting 32% and 28% of the vote. McCain is getting 17% and 21%. Romney 19% and 15% and Thompson 10% and 11%. It’s hard to see how a 3rd place finish with 12% provides Huckabee with a boost here. Plus, a larger percentage of Huckabee’s supporters indicate that they could change their minds, indicating more leaners that committeds. SC evangelicals are much more conservative than Iowa evangelicals. If the other candidates can make a case that Huckabee is not a conservative (the tack that Jim Geraghty reports Thompson is going to make) they would most likely hold him to around that percentage. Giuliani has already decided to bypass SC for FL and Romney have to consider whether he makes the same choice. The bulk of their voters will not go to Huckabee. They will go to either McCain or Thompson (if he can make a comeback as the sole ”true conservative” left). The key will be Thompson. If he catches on here, he can make this a three-man race. I think he will go all out until next Wednesday and then reassess. If he isn’t moving, I think he will then drop out and endorse McCain in order to stop Huckabee. Thompson has been giving some indications that he sees the fight between Reaganites and “Christian Democrats” that you in the Corner are debating and he wants the Reaganites to win. I think he would give it up to help save the party if he felt he could not get the prize himself.

UPDATE:

Rich,
Trust me dude, I have lived here for 12 years. Barring any gaffes (and that is saying something) Huckabee will roll to victory here. I am a Fred guy and will do what it takes for him to win, but realistically, the “conservatives” here are not economically conservative. Rememeber, we kept Fritz Hollings a in office for 30 years. Huckabee is a typical big spend Repub in SC (save Sanford, my dream candidate.)