Well, this is a moment.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused Democrats of having “tariff derangement syndrome” in Senate testimony on Thursday, saying the opposition party seems to be disappointed that Trump’s trade actions haven’t cratered the economy.
“There seems to be a new version of TDS which I would call ‘tariff derangement syndrome,’” Bessent said. Republicans have used the phrase “Trump derangement syndrome,” or TDS, to depict opposition to the president’s agenda.
Many Democrats, Bessent said, “seem disappointed that there is no inflation to date,” adding there has been “no recession due to tariffs,” citing recent data.
To be fair, Bessent’s wording here is clever. Smart propaganda should be recognized, if not necessarily applauded (for example, some Soviet propaganda was well done, but I’ll hold the applause). The Treasury secretary is trying to connect opposition to the administration’s tariff policy to some of the president’s angrier critics and also, in a certain sense, turning it into some sort of loyalty test. Moreover, by referring only to Democrats’ opposition to it, Bessent tries to tie opposition to tariffs to the left, and all the baggage that comes with that.
In reality, over the last few decades support for free(r) trade (absolutes are misleading in this context) has been typically more closely (but certainly not exclusively) associated with the right, particularly those parts of it more sympathetic to classical liberalism, Reaganism, free markets, smaller government, a smaller swamp, or however else you would like to describe them. Up to a point anyway: I’ll pass on “free market fundamentalists,” thanks. Those are near-mythical creatures spotted occasionally in print, but rarely, if ever, in the wild, let alone office. Even Argentina’s President Milei, perhaps the closest that there is to a market fundamentalist in office (who is doing rather well, incidentally, funny that) has been known to make the occasional compromise.
Judging by one recent poll (HarvardHarris, published May 19), 57 percent of voters believe Trump’s tariff policies are harming the economy (Democrats: 87 percent; Republicans: 22 percent; independents: 64 percent). Forty-nine percent of voters, a plurality, say his administration went too far with tariffs.
Twenty-two percent of Republicans and 64 percent of independents are “deranged”? Really? It also seems a bit harsh to think that 87 percent of Democrats are similarly afflicted. The number can’t be more than than 86 percent (I kid, I kid).
To be “disappointed” that inflation is still subdued or the economy is in recession would be deranged.
As to the effect of the tariffs, as Mr. Bessent knows perfectly well, it is far too early to say, above all because we do not yet know what they will be. The numbers are also distorted by the effect of advance buying to dodge the tariff increases and by the fact that many businesses still have decent stocks of “pre-tariff” goods. It is also not always easy to work out with much precision what policy has what effect on the economy. I do think that, when the dust has settled, tariffs will lead to both inflation and unemployment being higher than they would otherwise be. Will that be enough to tip the economy into recession? We’ll see.
A better example of tariff derangement syndrome might be the claim that tariffs are not taxes, unless, that is, those making that argument are doing so insincerely, to please some focus group.
But that could not possibly be the case.