Consumers don’t appear to be particularly excited by the coming tariff blitz.
CNBC:
Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.
However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.
Tariffs are not the only reason for the dip in consumer confidence, but even so. . . .
The midterms are next year.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, addressed a new session of his country’s congress a couple of weeks ago. Here via Cato is the full speech. It included some comments about tariffs. I have set out below a couple of extracts (my emphasis added):
“We need to give back to Argentines the freedom to trade with whomever they wish, so that goods and services can enter the local market and everyone can freely buy better quality products at a better price. For decades, under the premise of protecting a handful of jobs, the cost of living was deliberately made more expensive for millions of Argentines. In many cases, even forcing them to purchase goods of dubious quality at completely distorted prices.
And:
Or, let’s say, to protect industry X, because it generates jobs. That is also another lie. Because if in the process of opening up the economy, a better quality or better-priced product enters and a company goes bankrupt, it is also true that consumers now have more money in their pockets and can spend it in other sectors of the economy. Therefore, employment will be reallocated and will go to sectors where it is more productive and where there are higher wages and, therefore, there is greater welfare for all. Therefore, enough of the protectionist lie, because, in the end, it is nothing more than a scam between politicians and rent-seeking businessmen.”
The last line is worth noting. It underlines that it is not possible to impose a high tariff regime and drain the swamp. Choose one.