People can go broke predicting collapse in places they don’t understand. But, it is harder and harder to look at China and not see a state and civilization that is already on the wrong side of the mountain, rapidly heading on a downslope.

As we know, a huge component of economic growth is population growth. That’s long since over for China. Workers are older and demanding more in salary, and an older population is starting to really burden the smaller younger generations. The 4-2-1 social model — four grandparents, two parents, one child — is a disaster.

There seems to be persistent deflationary pressure throughout the Chinese economy. Prices are stagnating or falling in retail sectors. This is okay for older savers and those on fixed incomes, but it’s a disaster for young workers, indebted localities, and entrepreneurs.

China’s authoritarianism is working against growth, with new crackdowns on private firms in tech, finance, education, and even among foreign NGOs.

In this way, China’s saber-rattling about Taiwan and its suppression of Hong Kong look like attempts to solve, with militarism and displays of strength, a deteriorating optimism and patriotism as the Chinese social model no longer delivers regular increases in quality of life that it did for several decades.