The Ineluctable Logic of Regime Change

A little less than a month ago, we learned of the first lethal U.S. military operation targeting what Trump administration officials claimed were Venezuelan drug boats bound for ports unknown in the Caribbean. Following that action, I pointed out what I thought was the primary strategic flaw (to say nothing of its legal and tactical shortcomings) in what the administration promised would be a sustained kinetic campaign:

The administration was correct to conclude that the illegitimate, criminal, anti-American regime in Caracas would continue to pose a threat to U.S. interests so long as it remained in power. “That is why the logic of a kinetic war on the drugs that emanate from Venezuela invariably will lead to escalation,” I wrote.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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A little less than a month ago, we learned of the first lethal U.S. military operation targeting what Trump administration officials claimed were Venezuelan drug boats bound for ports unknown in the Caribbean. Following that action, I pointed out what I thought was the primary strategic flaw (to say nothing of its legal and tactical shortcomings) in what the administration promised would be a sustained kinetic campaign:

The administration was correct to conclude that the illegitimate, criminal, anti-American regime in Caracas would continue to pose a threat to U.S. interests so long as it remained in power. “That is why the logic of a kinetic war on the drugs that emanate from Venezuela invariably will lead to escalation,” I wrote.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.