The 2024 Polls Are a Trap

It seems you can’t swing a dead cat these days without encountering yet another disastrous polling result for President Joe Biden and the Democrats (or without having people awkwardly approach to ask why you are doing this to a dead cat). Biden’s unpopularity has engendered an enormous amount of “We can really do this!” optimism among Trump’s fans and more than a few political analysts. And make no mistake: Trump can win, and I still believe nobody’s really prepared for what happens next if he does. But I am briefly emerging from the depths of illness to warn you, like the warbling Admiral Ackbar: It’s a trap.

People have been talking about the Harvard/Harris poll from last week, which, aside from returning typical numbers about Biden’s popularity, also seemingly confirmed all the worst things I want to believe about the younger generation’s antisemitism. But that entire series of compound questions on the topic were poorly worded, and Harvard/Harris isn’t exactly the most reliable outfit in the world; as one wag pointed out, people would take it a lot less seriously if it were called the “Mark Penn poll,” which is what it is.

It seems you can’t swing a dead cat these days without encountering yet another disastrous polling result for President Joe Biden and the Democrats (or without having people awkwardly approach to ask why you are doing this to a dead cat). Biden’s unpopularity has engendered an enormous amount of “We can really do this!” optimism among Trump’s fans and more than a few political analysts. And make no mistake: Trump can win, and I still believe nobody’s really prepared for what happens next if he does. But I am briefly emerging from the depths of illness to warn you, like the warbling Admiral Ackbar: It’s a trap.

People have been talking about the Harvard/Harris poll from last week, which, aside from returning typical numbers about Biden’s popularity, also seemingly confirmed all the worst things I want to believe about the younger generation’s antisemitism. But that entire series of compound questions on the topic were poorly worded, and Harvard/Harris isn’t exactly the most reliable outfit in the world; as one wag pointed out, people would take it a lot less seriously if it were called the “Mark Penn poll,” which is what it is.

About the Author

Jeffrey Blehar

Jeffrey Blehar is a National Review staff writer living in Chicago. He is also the co-host of National Review’s Political Beats podcast, which explores the great music of the modern era with guests from the political world happy to find something non-political to talk about.