RealClearPolitics vs. 538: Unconvincing Arguments About Dueling Averages

Every now and then I’ll run across some reader who objects to my discussion of polls, contending that I shouldn’t cite the FiveThirtyEight average because it’s too friendly to Kamala Harris, or I shouldn’t cite the RealClearPolitics average because it’s too friendly to Donald Trump.

(I also hear objections to citing FiveThirtyEight because of “Nate Silver.” Nate Silver left FiveThirtyEight back in the spring of 2023. Silver now runs his own site, the Silver Bulletin. Try to keep up, man.)

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Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty is the senior political correspondent of National Review.

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Every now and then I’ll run across some reader who objects to my discussion of polls, contending that I shouldn’t cite the FiveThirtyEight average because it’s too friendly to Kamala Harris, or I shouldn’t cite the RealClearPolitics average because it’s too friendly to Donald Trump.

(I also hear objections to citing FiveThirtyEight because of “Nate Silver.” Nate Silver left FiveThirtyEight back in the spring of 2023. Silver now runs his own site, the Silver Bulletin. Try to keep up, man.)