Myra, you make about as good a case as I’ve seen for a single six-year term for presidents. To be sure, there are counterarguments: Who wants to be stuck with a loser for six years? And seeing what Obama has done already, do we really want to “embolden presidents to take risks, make difficult decisions, and exert bold leadership while reducing fear of political retribution” even further? Moreover, if not having to worry about reelection is a good thing for a president, then under the current system, shouldn’t the second term be better than the first?

The suggestion that a six-year president would have four good years and then two bad ones is intriguing but ultimately speculative. Isn’t it equally likely that he would begin to lose power after two years, as a lame duck who has probably just experienced a setback in the midterms? Under that scenario, you would have two good years and then four bad ones, which would be a worse ratio than what we have now.

My general impression is that how well a president does in a given time period (measured by popularity and the ability to achieve his goals, leaving ideology aside) is pretty much determined by luck, or at least by factors beyond his control, such as international politics and the economy. Second terms tend to be worse than first ones because if your first term is lousy, you don’t get a second one. Bad second terms aren’t the result of structural factors in our system of government, but merely an example of regression toward the mean. The same phenomenon occurs in many areas, which explains the phrase “sophomore jinx.”

If Nixon hadn’t had to run for reelection, there would have been no Watergate. So his reputation today would be a lot better, but would his last two years in office have been much different, in terms of accomplishments, from the year and a half that he actually had? It’s unlikely, and whoever succeeded him would not have done much better than Ford and Carter did; the 1970s were just a difficult time all around. I have limited faith in our ability to overcome the natural human tendency to get tired of politicians by fiddling with the Constitution, but if a change to the current system is needed, it would make the most sense to simply repeal the two-term limit.