Matt Yglesias is predicting John Edwards to win the Democratic nomination due to the candidate’s lead in Iowa. There’s no way to call it definitely, of course, but if I had to hazard a guess right now, I’d go with Obama. I was never entirely convinced that Hillary was inevitable, and I think that Obama’s ability to fund-raise, to energize the Democratic base, the “netroots,” the youth vote, etc., combined with his ability to seem fairly liberal without being off-putting to moderates and those less invested in the political process, will push him to the top. Regardless of how you characterize his actual views, he just doesn’t seem extreme. He’s really a very likeable politician, a trait which I think will play especially well in our somewhat rancorous political climate. Less important, but still a factor, is that I think there’s an urge in the Democratic party to nominate a minority candidate this year.