I like the Colts, too, Andy, but I expect a tighter game than that.

Saints’ defensive guru Gregg Williams has his hands full today. Peyton Manning has been unusually loose with the ball of late — 11 INTs over the second half of the regular season — but the Saints can’t seriously expect to get the five turnovers that allowed them to squeak by the Vikings in the NFC championship. Reggie Wayne twinged his knee in practice this week, but I bet he still feels faster lined up across from Tracy Porter or Jabari Greer than he did against the Jets’ Darrelle Revis two weeks ago. Even if Wayne is nicked up, the Colts have too many other options. Who is going to cover the league’s top tight end, Dallas Clark — particularly when the Colts go with three WRs and run the no-huddle against the Saints’ nickel package? Darren Sharper and Roman Harper are good safeties, but they’ll have to respect the Colts’ three deep threats — Wayne, Pierre Garçon, and Austin Collie — which I think presages a big day from Clark. Ten catches is not out of the question.

The Saints will look to pressure Manning (good luck with that) — Gregg Williams says he wants his guys to put some “remember-me hits” on the Colts’ QB. But they have to be looking to limit the Colts’ possessions, as the Dolphins did back in week two of the regular season. However gaudy the Saints’ passing stats this year, they still operated a balanced offense; today, I think they’ll feature the run (and their backs in the short-passing game) as long as they’re within striking distance on the scoreboard. While the Colts’ run defense is improved — Gary Brackett has been playing very well — they are still a little undersized up front. A gimpy Dwight Freeney helps the Saints passing game, yes, but I still expect to see a lot of Pierre Thomas — maybe even some Mike Bell — as the Saints opt for power running to counteract the speed of the Colts’ defensive front seven. We’ll see plenty of Reggie Bush, but lined up in the slot and split out more than in the backfield.

Barring a spate of Colts turnovers and/or a world-beating performance by Reggie Bush in the return game, the Colts salt this away in the fourth, 41-28. Haitian-American Garçon will have a big sympathy advantage in the Super Bowl MVP considerations, even if he has the third-best receiving numbers for the Colts.