Top Indo-Pacific Commander Watching for ‘Potential’ Chinese Aggression Linked to Protests

Simi Valley, Calif. – Admiral John Aquilino, the top U.S. commander in the Indo-Pacific, said that he’s watching closely for potential Chinese military operations intended to distract from China’s recent nationwide protests.

“It’s certainly an issue that we watch out for, the internal issues going on inside of mainland China. There’s an opportunity or a potential for those to influence the external operations,” he said on a panel at the Reagan National Defense Forum this afternoon. “We watch it very closely.”

“Our operations are designed to deter whether there’s internal issues or not in the PRC,” he continued. “And there’s economic issues as well.”

For now, though, it seems that the protests might not be an immediate factor in Chinese decision-making. After demonstrations popped up in major cities across China last weekend, the Chinese authorities have clamped down on dissent, carrying out sweeping arrests and censoring social media posts deemed to be supportive of the protest movement.

The intelligence community assesses that the protests do not currently stand a chance at undermining the stability of the Chinese regime, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, said during a session at the forum earlier today. She added, however, that “it is nevertheless something that we’re watching quite closely.”

“It is highlighting the challenges that Xi finds himself in the context of his covid policy, she continued. Haines additionally said that the mass dissatisfaction with zero-Covid undermines the Chinese ruler’s narrative that his regime is “so much more effective at government.”

Representative Seth Moulton, speaking at a panel alongside Aquilino, said that the fact that “China probably is not 10 feet tall” — a reference to China’s significant economic and demographic problems — should be cause for concern.

“The fact that China might have more domestic trouble at home, whether it’s with their economy or the protests or anything else, I think has to keep us more apprised of domestic events,” he added.

U.S. officials here today addressed the Chinese military threat at length. Their remarks have come at a particularly significant time, following the recent release of a Pentagon report that detailed certain new aspects of Beijing’s military buildup — including a projection that the Chinese military could acquire 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2035.

In addition to the China protests, officials here extensively discussed the possibility that Beijing might use military force against Taiwan. In recent weeks a number of prominent U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have warned that China’s military preparations are accelerating.

“We know that we lose war games when we fight China,” Senator Roger Wicker said during a panel this morning, referencing classified military war games and think-tank assessments.

Referencing former Admiral Phil Davidson’s comment that China could attack Taiwan by 2027, Wicker said: “I don’t know if there’s a Davidson window or not, but it could certainly come sooner than that.”

Aquilino, who is Davidson’s successor, was asked to give his own assessment of Beijing’s military timeline during his later session. He demurred. “I get this question often. I give the same answer: If I knew the answer, I wouldn’t be sitting here talking to you. I’d be in Vegas.”

He added that the timeline doesn’t matter “because we do have to be prepared today, and we’re taking all of those actions.”

Other officers and officials, meanwhile, described how U.S. military personnel are already squaring off against Chinese forces every day — and sometimes in very close encounters.

When the U.S. navy goes through the Taiwan Strait, Admiral Mike Gilday, the chief of naval operations, said during an appearance here, “They’re going nose-to-nose with Chinese ships.”

He also referred to “a lot of stuff going on under the sea,” which he said he couldn’t talk about publicly.”

For his part, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, during a keynote address at the forum today, said that the Pentagon is “is finally making fundamental and unprecedented shifts in attention and resources toward Asia.”

“We’re aligning our budget as never before to the China challenge,” he said. “We’re making the Department’s largest investment ever in R&D and forging stronger capabilities. And we’re modernizing, training, and equipping the U.S. military for contingencies in the Indo-Pacific.”