Poland’s entry into the euro is imminent—in theory. With relatively healthy public finances, it should easily qualify. The economy is slowing but it is still the fastest-growing among big EU countries. Germany wants Poland in, at one time even talking of it joining in 2015. Yet Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform-led government has an opaque public line, promising only to join when the conditions are right.
The truth is that Poland faces a tricky dilemma. Mr Tusk has no wish to adopt the euro in its present crisis. But since the likely solution involves greater political and fiscal integration, it could become harder to join later.
Actually that’s a plus. For Poland to abandon its hard-won democracy (because that’s what those weasel words “political and fiscal integration” really mean) in exchange for a little more infrastructure spending would be a deal so dumb that it would make the sale of Manhattan to the Dutch look like an act of genius.
And then there’s this:
The free-floating zloty was an advantage in the financial crisis. A weaker currency supported exports and foreign investment; it also raised the value of EU funds, which are euro-denominated.
That would be that, you might think, but beneath a skeptical surface, the Economist has a europhile core, and so we read on:
Surveys suggest that the euro crisis has turned Poles from enthusiasts (around 60% backed euro membership a few years ago) into pessimists (only 25% now favour joining, with 68% against). The opposition Law and Justice Party taps this sentiment. It appeals to victims of Poland’s breakneck social change and structural reforms, such as the millions of public-sector workers and the young unemployed.
Translation: only losers don’t like the euro. This was the sort of argument that many in Sweden’s establishment put forward at the time of that country’s 2003 referendum on the single currency (the sensible Swedes ignored them and stuck with the krona, a decision that has worked out very well).
The Economist concludes:
A general election is due no later than 2015. The government cannot risk making euro entry part of its programme. Yet unless it joins soon, Poland could be forced into a second-class status in Europe . . .
Oh come on: “first-class” status would be akin to a first class ticket on the Titanic or, if the Poles are luckier than that, a billet on (looks around nervously to see if Victor Davis Hanson is around) one of the higher benches of a trireme. Either way, it’s well worth missing.
In next week’s Economist: A tricky dilemma: whether to jump into that volcano.
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