Noah sketched out what he characterized as an unlikely but possible Haley scenario. I agree with its general contours but want to underline what makes it unlikely, which is Iowa. Noah rightly says that things would need to be set in motion by a Trump underperformance in Iowa. Maybe that happens. But, for now, the late movement is the same as the early movement in Iowa — toward Trump. Four out of the last five Iowa polls have Trump above 50 percent. We haven’t seen anything like that polling strength in a competitive Iowa race before.
The problem for Haley is that there’s no sign that she’s moving up in Iowa, and the problem for the anti-Trump cause generally is that DeSantis is moving up only at the margins, while his super PAC melts down. If Trump wins Iowa going away, it’s going to be very hard to beat him in New Hampshire.
It’s true that Iowa and New Hampshire often produce a split decision, but we’ve seen Iowa winners, like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who are “too Southern” or “too religious” for New Hampshire. That’s not true of Trump. In 2016, of course, he lost Iowa and won New Hampshire.
The best scenario for stopping Trump is still a miracle DeSantis surge in Iowa. The second-best would be a DeSantis collapse and strong Haley move into second place in Iowa. Neither seems likely. That leaves the underwhelming-Trump-victory scenario. Again, maybe that happens, but the public polling shows it moving the other way. (Another advantage of an underwhelming Trump win would be that DeSantis might stay in through New Hampshire, keeping some Trump voters from Trump and indirectly helping Haley.)
All that said, Haley’s showing in the new CBS poll of New Hampshire is the first glimmer of competitiveness in this race in a long time, and it’s to her credit that she’s gotten here after a very slow start. Her movement has been a surprise to many of us, so perhaps there are more surprises to come.