I was a little skeptical that Trump would be “toast” for his comments about John McCain, but had no idea they would be the prelude to his rocketing to a substantial lead in all the polls. Judging by those surveys alone, you might rank the field as top tier (Trump), second tier (Walker, Bush), and everyone else. I still think political gravity will take hold, but that could take quite some time, and the longer it takes, the more of a problem he becomes, particularly for those candidates who assume they will inherit his voters when he fades.

As for Thursday’s debate, I hope he gets straight-up policy questions like any other candidate. The media has been incredibly tough on Trump as a general matter; at the same time, interviewers have tended to play to his strengths by asking him about his own comments, his poll numbers, and what other people have said about him.