Trump obviously has a bunch of balls in the air on trade, but he gets to decide when to stop juggling them. He can get at least superficial deals on any of the trade fronts almost for the asking (real progress with China isn’t so easy, but even there he could get a victory on paper pretty readily). It’s just a matter of when or if Trump wants deals. For him, the politics is fairly simple — if he gets any concessions at all he can say they were only because of his stalwartness, and regardless, he’s fought trade imbalances harder than his predecessors.

Does Trump want a deal with the EU now? Maybe. Yesterday’s warm meeting was encouraging, but just the start of getting something done.

Meanwhile, the folks at China Beige Book are forecasting a deal with China in the Fall:

1. Pre-November U.S.-China Deal More Likely Than Not. Here’s what we know: The White House is perfectly willing to implement the next tariff tranche before the midterms. Moreover, the President will escalate in response to perceived Chinese attempts to maintain the trade imbalance. On the Chinese side, the principal risk is seen as dealing with an unreliable partner, in light of the May failure.
That said, the reason to anticipate a U.S.-China agreement in the fall is simple but powerful: we were already close to one. A “tighter” Chinese managed trade offer on agriculture, aircraft, and energy — versus promises to open markets with some fictional value attached — is what the President is truly after, and remains well within Beijing’s power to deliver. While the 2018 trade deficit is a lost cause, “victory” would be a 2019 deficit that at least shrinks compared to 2018, and ideally as compared to 2016. That would create the narrative the President is looking for entering the 2020 election.