As I noted before we had a verdict, we’re in completely uncharted territory trying to figure out how voters will react to Donald Trump’s conviction on trumped-up charges. Noah does the best he can to produce some educated guesswork based on the information we have, such as the fact that Trump’s current support is disproportionately among less-likely voters. Let me offer here some pure speculative punditry, unencumbered by the pretense that any of this can be predicted in a way that is anchored in evidence — in other words, not predictions of what will happen, but reasons why things might play out in different ways.
Hurting Trump






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