I noted here the other day that Trump has in the past made up as much ground in the polls as he needs to make up now.
Harry Enten compares what Trump needs to do against the performance of past incumbents running for reelection, rather than to Trump’s 2016 race. His key point: “Since 1940, the only incumbent losing at this point in the cycle who would go on to win another term was Harry Truman. He, like Trump, was down around 10 points to Thomas Dewey in the early summer of 1948.” And Truman, as Enten points out, was making his first run for president and so wasn’t a typical incumbent.
But then again, Trump isn’t a typical incumbent in a lot of ways, either.