1. If he’s nominated, it becomes a tough vote for at least some of the Republican party’s 2008 hopefuls. George Allen, Bill Frist, and even Rick Santorum and Chuck Hagel would have trouble with either a yes or a no vote. (Not that I think Santorum or Hagel are serious candidates.) Dick Cheney, if he’s running, pays a price too.

2. A Gonzales nomination ought to produce some resignations in principle from conservatives in the Bush administration. It may produce at least one from conservatives on the Supreme Court–which would be hard for Bush to spin.