With two weeks to go until polling day (July 4) in the U.K., the main story continues to be how low the Tories will go. No one seriously doubts that Labour (which, incidentally, is considerably less centrist than is now being portrayed) will secure a majority so large that it will be able to do more or less what it wants. Labour was always in line for one of the biggest majorities in British parliamentary history, but now it is being handed a bonus by the way that Reform, the Tories’ rival to the right, has been given an immense boost by Nigel Farage taking over as the party’s leader. As the Conservatives sink and Reform rises, the right is now badly split. In a first-past-the post system (FPTP), that means disaster.
To dust off my math from the other day:
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