For reasons rooted in their countries’ long experience of Russian rule and Soviet occupation, when a politician from the Baltic states talks about Moscow’s negotiating tactics, it’s worth paying attention, not least when it’s Estonia’s impressive prime minister Kaja Kallas doing the talking.
Speaking generally, I think that the best way to understand Putin’s policies, whether domestically or internationally, is (the enabling of kleptocracy apart) as a curious mixture of the czarist and the Soviet, with some added twists all of their own.
Nevertheless, when it comes to Putin’s current attempts to enter into negotiations over the future of Ukraine (and, more generally, Eastern Europe), Kallas has little doubt that the strategy underpinning them has been taken straight from the Soviet playbook.
“This is a broader test for the west and much broader than just Ukraine. Putin only understands strength, and Russia’s goal has always been to divide the west, the EU and Nato.”
Kallas said there was a very clear pattern to Russian negotiations and it was best summed up by the former Soviet foreign minister Andrei Gromyko. “He said there are three basic rules of negotiating with the west. First, demand the maximum, do not meekly ask but demand. Second, present ultimatums, and third, do not give one inch of ground because there will always be someone in the west that will offer you something maybe half that you did not previously have. It is so characteristic of how they operate.
“We are already discussing what we can offer to de-escalate, and if we do that the west will fall into their trap. Nato has not caused this crisis and is not planning to attack anybody. Nato cannot do anything on its side to de-escalate. We should not take any expensive steps so they end up with something they did not have before.”
Kallas said that did not mean she opposed dialogue, and said she was happy to see talks about transparency on military exercises, even if she was “very doubtful that Russia will keep its side”.
Right on all counts.
Kallas is well aware of the danger — increased dependency on Russian gas — posed by the Nord Stream 2 pipelines (“a geopolitical project not an economic one”). However, being the prime minister of a small country in a dangerous neighborhood can involve making some claims that only those with a pressing need not to alienate any allies (or encourage any enemies) would make:
“Overall the level of unity we [NATO] have shown will have surprised Putin.”
“Overall” is doing a lot of work there. When it comes (expressions of concern and vague talk about sanctions aside) to Germany, so far as Putin is concerned, everything seems to be going to plan.