It didn’t take a recent trip to Ukraine (primarily Kyiv and Kharkiv) to convince me that the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war may well hinge on the drone war now being waged between the two combatants, but nothing I saw while I was there changed my mind on that topic. On the contrary. . . .
I was traveling with a small group of journalists on a visit arranged and sponsored by Razom for Ukraine, a humanitarian and advocacy group. While we were in Kyiv, a large Russian onslaught on the city using both drones and ballistic missiles meant spending most of one night in a hotel’s well-protected air-raid shelter. From there we could sometimes hear the sounds of the attack and the Ukrainian response to it, but no more than that. Others were not so fortunate.
The Kyiv Independent (June 15):
Several multi-story residential buildings in Kyiv were struck in the Russian attack, officials said. At least five people have been killed and 35 others injured in the capital, including a pregnant woman and two children, aged 5 and 6.
Dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles — including the hypersonic Zircon — as well as over 600 drones were fired at Ukraine during the attack.
Moreover:
The Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, one of the most important historic and religious symbols of Ukraine, has been heavily damaged by Russia’s latest mass missile and drone attack on the nation’s capital overnight on June 15.
Russia’s defense of Christianity is what it is.
Other evenings, whether in Kyiv or elsewhere, were marked by further drone attacks and one other all-nighter in a shelter.
However, despite increasingly sophisticated multi-level Russian hits, and despite an acute shortage of anti-ballistic missile defenses, Ukraine still remains ahead in the drone war, thanks mainly to a technological and operational lead that it has to maintain. Its success in managing this so far owes a great deal to an often improvisational and highly innovative effort in the Ukrainian private sector, something discussed in some detail during our time in the country. The trip also included a visit to a training facility where attendees can learn to pilot both drones in the air and their earthbound equivalents: unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs).
Drone development is a work in continuous progress, an example, in some respects, of the longstanding Japanese concept of kaizen as well as more radical innovation. UGVs, a couple of which I saw trundling around at the training facility, appear to be at an earlier, if already impressive stage. I wrote a bit about them in January and again last month, including an account of how a lone UGV armed with a machine gun had defended a position from repeated Russian attacks. The implications of this for Ukraine, fighting a war of attrition against a much more heavily populated opponent, are obvious.
Once again, the contest is technological, not just military. The Russians have their UGVs, too, and at least one analyst has predicted robot-on-robot battles.
Under the circumstances, it was no surprise to come across this in a June 22 article from Breaking Defense:
War robots took over exhibitors’ stands at the 2026 Eurosatory edition, with at least 50 unmanned ground vehicle makers in attendance and more than a dozen systems of various sizes on display.
Many of the offerings came from various European or American firms, but experts say the country at the forefront of these technologies is, without a doubt, Ukraine.
“Ukraine leads in this space because it has an invaluable three years of battlefield testing and experimentation, which in turn have enabled the development of robust tactics and dedicated organizational structures, like new units, to employ UGVs,” Federico Borsari, fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Breaking Defense.
The war-torn country recorded its largest presence at France’s largest defense trade show last week, with over 40 manufacturers participating, several of which were showing combat robots for the first time publicly. . . .
The author of the article, Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, quotes Borsari’s view that, Ukraine excepted, industry may be gearing up to supply more UGVs than militaries are ready to absorb. That may be the case now, but I doubt that it will remain so for long.