In the latest issue of the magazine, I make the case for why conservatives shouldn’t abandon limited-government ideology (it can be read online here). I had to write it before knowing the outcome of the midterm election because of publication deadlines, and focused mainly on the philosophical reasons for fighting for a smaller, less intrusive government. But the results of the 2022 elections make it clear that small-government conservatism has also been much more politically successful than the MAGA coalition that replaced it.
Looking back at successful Republican midterm performances — 1994, 2010, 2014 — one sees that they all made the size of government a central part of the campaigns. The MAGA movement is often likened to the Tea Party insofar as they were both populist movements that clashed with the establishment and took over the party. But, despite a few notable exceptions, the track record of the Tea Party is much better. In 2010, Republicans gained six Senate seats and 63 House seats; in 2014, Republicans gained another nine Senate seats and added 13 seats to their majority. That meant, before the start of MAGA, Republicans were at 247 House seats (their highest since 1930) and 54 seats in the Senate. In comparison, Republicans hope to come out of 2022, at best, holding the line on the Senate at 50 votes, and at around 220 House seats (give or take a few).
Some conservatives who are blaming Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell for last Tuesday’s underperformance argued that he also tried to stop the Tea Party. But the D.C. establishment went after Tea Party Republicans much more aggressively in 2010 than they did against MAGA candidates in 2022 (McConnell pushed Charlie Crist over Marco Rubio, for instance). As Charlie has pointed out, this time, the Trump GOP is the establishment.
Unlike MAGA, when it came down to it, the Tea Party largely got the job done. Despite venomous coverage by the media and attempts to stifle the movement by the D.C. establishment, they won not only primaries but also general elections.
I’m not saying 2022 is a simple case of Republicans’ abandoning limited government. But I will say that in a year when inflation was the top concern of voters, arguing that trillions of dollars of excessive government spending exacerbated the problem is much more relevant than arguing that Trump was robbed in 2020 or that we need to take on Big Tech.
MAGA likes to talk about the Republican Party as if it was on life support when it was clinging to small-government ideology. But it performed a lot better back then than it is doing now.