Republicans and Democrats spent most of the 1998 gubernatorial race wondering which of the two parties he would hurt most. As it turned out, he beat both of them. He drew a lot of support from young voters. If that happens again, he will probably benefit from a heavy youth turnout for Obama.

All that said, I think he is unlikely to win the Senate election and that he probably helps the Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. His administration was competent enough, although it was more of a bipartisan-establishment affair than the change his voters had wanted. But Ventura was pretty hands-off during his administration, and what Minnesotans remember are the petty and self-indulgent episodes to which their governor was prone. And of course, Ventura cannot really run as a non-politician this time, the way he did in 1998.

My guess is that he will split the anti-incumbent vote and the anti-war vote and help Coleman get re-elected. But as I said, he has been underestimated before.