Vindication in Russia, or American Folly?

Like Noah and Rich, I’ve seen enough, and studied enough Russian history, to be inclined to a large dollop of caution both about what exactly is happening in Russia right now, and about what we should want to see happening. Every possible source of information is unreliable. Hardly anybody saw these particular turns of events coming — either the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin or what now appears to be its end.

Is it over? The potential abrupt collapse of Vladimir Putin’s regime would of course be a natural and entirely just cause for celebration — Putin richly deserves the fate that greeted Nicolae Ceaușescu — but Russian history teaches us that as likely as not, if that still happens, he will ultimately be replaced by something worse . . . and that getting from Point A to Point B could involve some wrenching and extremely perilous instability. Another lesson: Win or lose for Putin, Russian history reminds us that the ongoing events are of the sort that are not only impossible to determine with certainty while they are happening; historians will likely be disputing for the next century what happened.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Like Noah and Rich, I’ve seen enough, and studied enough Russian history, to be inclined to a large dollop of caution both about what exactly is happening in Russia right now, and about what we should want to see happening. Every possible source of information is unreliable. Hardly anybody saw these particular turns of events coming — either the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin or what now appears to be its end.

Is it over? The potential abrupt collapse of Vladimir Putin’s regime would of course be a natural and entirely just cause for celebration — Putin richly deserves the fate that greeted Nicolae Ceaușescu — but Russian history teaches us that as likely as not, if that still happens, he will ultimately be replaced by something worse . . . and that getting from Point A to Point B could involve some wrenching and extremely perilous instability. Another lesson: Win or lose for Putin, Russian history reminds us that the ongoing events are of the sort that are not only impossible to determine with certainty while they are happening; historians will likely be disputing for the next century what happened.