The Suwalki Gap & NATO: Wagner’s Suwalki Overture?

The Suwalki Gap is a small stretch of land along the Polish-Lithuanian border that separates Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave from Moscow’s Belarusian vassal state. It is also the only direct land connection between NATO’s Baltic “peninsula” (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) and the Atlantic Alliance’s continental European “mainland.”

To be sure, the Baltic trio are somewhat less geographically isolated with Finland now a NATO member and Sweden pacing impatiently in the alliance’s antechamber, but the Suwalki Gap undoubtedly remains a major strategic concern for NATO. Any attempt by Russia to take it would, depending on the route taken, be an act of war against Poland or Lithuania — or both. Poland and Lithuania are NATO members, meaning that such an attack would trigger the mutual defense arrangements under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and, as such, would likely trigger a much wider war.

About the Author

Andrew Stuttaford

Andrew Stuttaford is the editor of National Review's Capital Matters.

Featured Tags

The Suwalki Gap is a small stretch of land along the Polish-Lithuanian border that separates Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave from Moscow’s Belarusian vassal state. It is also the only direct land connection between NATO’s Baltic “peninsula” (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) and the Atlantic Alliance’s continental European “mainland.”

To be sure, the Baltic trio are somewhat less geographically isolated with Finland now a NATO member and Sweden pacing impatiently in the alliance’s antechamber, but the Suwalki Gap undoubtedly remains a major strategic concern for NATO. Any attempt by Russia to take it would, depending on the route taken, be an act of war against Poland or Lithuania — or both. Poland and Lithuania are NATO members, meaning that such an attack would trigger the mutual defense arrangements under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and, as such, would likely trigger a much wider war.