That’s the kind of campaign sign Democratic incumbents don’t want to see again next November, which is why there still is not going to be a “comprehensive” amnesty extravaganza that reaches the president’s desk. This is why Nancy Pelosi is supporting amnesty but demanding (according to the Washington Post) at least 70 Republican votes for it before she will allow a vote on the floor—a bar that is almost certainly unattainable. This gives her an excuse for not crucifying her majority on the cross of amnesty, but also a way to pin the blame on the president, because he failed to bring along enough members of his own party.

Mickey Kaus warns me and other immigration hawks that the old conventional wisdom that an immigration bill won’t pass is being supplanted by a new conventional wisdom that it will pass; thus, we “can’t rely on ‘comprehensive’ reform gridlocking itself.” While I agree that we can’t just wait for the open-borders crowd to gridlock itself (which is why groups like this one are so vital), I’d have to say that amnesty is even less likely now than it was before the leak of the White House plan. In a ham-handed attempt to give immigration hawks what it thinks they want, the administration has crafted a proposal that has inflamed its Democrat allies. Two examples: First, Bush’s plan would require absurdly high fines for amnesty ($3,500 every three years for illegals to maintain their “temporary” legal status and $10,000 to convert to a permanent green card), meaning either that only the handful of rich illegals could afford it or, more likely, that the fines would be whittled down as a bill progressed in Congress and/or waived for many if not most of the illegals—thus rendering it a nullity. And second, massive numbers of future workers would be admitted on a new “Y” visa, which would supposedly not allow permanent residency, essentially creating a Saudi-style policy of importing permanently servile labor. The fact is, though, that immigration hawks actually want two things in an immigration bill, neither of which the president will ever agree to: No legalization of illegals, and no increases in future immigration. Any bill that would legalize illegals and increase immigration—regardless of the bells and whistles—is worse than the status quo, especially now that the administration is actually permitting limited enforcement of the immigration laws.