A smart friend e-mails this warning:

Dear Rich: The 4th quarter GDP report and the ISM Manufacturing Index report two weeks ago are warning shots across the bow of Republican congressional and Senate candidates, and conservative spokesmen in the media. Triumphalism about the failure of Obama’s stimulus plan continues among Republicans, conservatives, and conservative news commentators. There is triumphalism about the coming 2010 elections, because it is assumed that Obama’s present weakness and “the failed stimulus program” will sink him and his party in November. Many Republican candidates and conservative spokesmen in the media are setting an economic trap for themselves which might be very embarrassing in six months or sooner. We must remember that George H. W. Bush was unbeatable in March 1991 after the first Gulf War, and a year and a half later lost the election to Bill Clinton. The ISM Manufacturing Index for January was at a five year high (58.4 versus consensus at 55.5). The 4th quarter GDP was up well above consensus. It was 5.7% growth. The next quarter GDP growth will be even higher, as might all four quarters of 2010, each probably high single digit growth, between 5 and 9% quarter to quarter, seasonally adjusted. This is well above consensus. The distinction between the long and the short run of economic policy is crucial. More than $30 trillion was poured into the global economy in 2008 – 2009 by world central banks and governments. That central bank credit expansion has been a much more important stimulus to growth than Obama’s so-called “stimulus program.” This short-run, central-bank financed growth will surely last through the election of 2010. Republican candidates and conservative media commentators must prepare the American people for this phony boom with terrible long-term consequences. The news story here is: the revival of the economy by central bank money-printing and enormous government deficits to be paid for by our children. Also, triumphalism about the weak economy should stop. Otherwise, Republican and conservative triumphalists will be sandbagged and look foolish in a mere six months, maybe sooner. Since the economy and jobs are the central issues now, the focus must be on the Obama deficits, the Obama tax hikes on the middle class, and the Obama economic policy which makes government employees richer and the American working people poorer. Headline inflation will be subdued through the year. The unemployment rate should begin to fall by the second quarter, but there will still be millions unemployed. Even if people are going back to work, their incomes are lower, even much lower. The economy will certainly be a very high priority in the minds of voters, even if there are other very important issues by November. It is necessary to focus on the issues where Obama is and will be wrong between now and November 2010 – terrorism, U.S. trials, no national security policy to keep Americans safe, taxes, fiscal deficits, America’s huge indebtedness to foreigners, especially China, and many other social and cultural issues.