The voting totals on the “Obama-McConnell” (as some Lefties are already calling it) tax deal promise to be fascinating. Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) tells us he likes it. Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) tells us he is ambivalent. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D., La.)(!) opposes it, and is joined by the Club for Growth(!).

And now Majority Leader Reid, on the heels of a meeting with VPOTUS that was supposed to reassure his shaky caucus, has warned he may not have the votes to pass it through the Senate:

When asked whether he would have enough support to pass the legislation, the Nevada Democrat said, “No. I think we’re going to have to do some more work” in persuading Members to approve the agreement.
However, Reid hinted that the political realities of letting the deal collapse — which would result in the tax cuts lapsing Jan. 1 — could shift the landscape. “We have to realize where we are and see where votes are when it’s all over,” he said.

But the Senate isn’t the real worry here. Even if a few conservative Republicans reject the deal from the Right, Reid will only need circa 20 votes — a third of his caucus — to pass the deal, less if he can talk the likes of Bernie Sanders down from his threatened filibuster.

The House is where there is real trouble. As usual, the not-long-for-this-earth Blue Dog caucus holds the key. But don’t be surprised if this juuuust passes the Senate during the lame duck and languishes in the House.