The humiliating performance by Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections has drawn renewed attention to the negative influence of Donald Trump on the Republican Party. What’s been interesting to watch over the past few days is that it isn’t merely those of us who have consistently been lamenting Trump’s control over the GOP who have blamed Trump for saddling the GOP with so many subpar candidates. He’s getting criticized even by some who typically like or defend him.
If you’re following the conversations on Twitter, podcasts, cable, and within online publications, there is definitely a “water is now safe” quality to criticizing Trump. It feels like something is different this time. Trump’s unnecessary insults at Florida governor Ron DeSantis, the big winner from Tuesday, especially have not seemed to sit well with people. It’s no big mystery who Fox’s Laura Ingraham was referring to when she said, “If the voters conclude that you’re putting your own ego or your own grudges ahead of what’s good for the country, they’re going to look elsewhere, period.”
But when it comes to prominent figures lining up against Trump, we’ve seen this movie before — in the days after the Capitol riot, and throughout the early stages of the 2016 Republican primary. One thing to note especially is that a number of pro-Trump figures on the right were actually late arrivals to the Trump train, the type of people who initially supported Ted Cruz in the Republican primary.
But ultimately, Trump’s power has never derived from the praise he’s earned among conservative influencers or Republicans holding or seeking office — that’s always come after the fact. His influence has always derived from his passionate and devoted followers, who cheer for him, and direct their anger at anybody who he decides to make his enemy. And we have not heard from them yet. We have not even seen polls reflecting his standing in the wake of the midterm elections. We do not know where the early adopters stand — not the ones who were won over during his presidency, or once he became the nominee — but those who made him the nominee by backing him in a crowded field with many other conservative stars.
This is why I wrote in March that there are benefits to Trump running — as long as he loses. Because if he is rejected by Republican voters, he loses his influence in every place else. It’s just premature to know whether the ground has really shifted.