By all accounts, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is still holed up in the U.S., presumably in Florida — where he parked himself in the final days of his tenure at the home of a Brazilian mixed martial arts icon.

Now, the former leader faces potential extradition: Earlier this month, Brazilian prosecutors received approval to investigate Bolsonaro’s alleged role in riots at government buildings in Brazil’s capital.

Before the launch of that investigation, senior U.S. officials said Washington would comply with any Brazilian government requests pursuant to a potential investigation. One complicating factor for everyone is Bolsonaro’s visa status, as he may be in the U.S. on an expired visa reserved for sitting heads of state.

The U.S. portion of this diplomatic saga might soon be cut short. Bolsonaro has reportedly said, after spending some time in the hospital due to abdominal pains, that he would leave the U.S. voluntarily on an expedited timeline before the end of the month. But what happens if he doesn’t?

The Atlantic Council’s Gissou Nia and Thomas Warrick describe the years-long legal circus that could result:

While a formal extradition process for Bolsonaro would take several years to unfold, starting with the issuing of a warrant and a hearing to establish whether sufficient evidence exists to sustain the charge, this would keep Bolsonaro out of Brazil and, perhaps, allow for restrictions on his access to media and electronics that could be used to incite supporters to further violence.
From there, the process involves several layers of preliminary review by the US Department of State and a probable cause determination by the US Department of Justice before the case is forwarded to the US attorney for the district where the individual is located. An extradition order is not appealable, but Bolsonaro could petition for a writ of habeas corpus to ensure that he gets a hearing. The US secretary of state then makes the final decision whether to extradite.

Of course, all of this is hypothetical because Bolsonaro seems likely to return to Brazil sometime soon. But if he remains here, the Biden administration will have a tricky extradition situation on its hands.