The Corner

What Happens if Russia Attacks a NATO-Flagged Ship?

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Commercial vessels, including vessels which are part of Black Sea grain deal, wait to pass the Bosphorus strait off the shores of Yenikapi in Istanbul, Turkey, October 31, 2022.

Umit Bektas/Reuters

In a stark warning following Russia’s decision last month to suspend its participation in a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain via its Black Sea ports, the White House said that Moscow was laying the groundwork to take military action against commercial targets. “We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks,” said National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge. The escalation Hodge described could be just around the corner.

Over the weekend, a Russian warship underscored its threat to ships that try to break Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports by firing small-arms ordnance over the bow of a cargo ship bound for the Ukrainian city of Izmail. According to the crew of the Turkish-owned vessel, the Russian forces who boarded their boat inspected the crew’s documents and passports and forced the captain to sign a document certifying that “no injury or damage” occurred as a result of their incursion. The ship was scheduled to transport agricultural products from Ukraine to a Romanian port ahead of distribution, but the cargo never reached its intended destination.

Noah Rothman

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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