Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts seems to confirm some of the points made by David Kirby and David Boaz of the Cato Institute in their new study, “The Libertarian Vote in the Age of Obama,” released today. Among other things, and based on official data, the authors show that the libertarian-leaning voters have become the swing voters.

Once again, using ANES data, we found that libertarians are about 14 percent of the electorate.
Libertarian voters swung away from Bush and the GOP in 2004 and 2006, but in 2008 they swung back, voting for McCain by 71 to 27 percent.
Other analysts find larger estimates of the libertarian vote: Gallup and Washington Post polls suggest 23 to 25 percent, and a Zogby poll found 59 percent of respondents agreeing that they are “fiscally conservative and socially liberal,” and 44 percent agreed that made them “libertarian.”

What are their predictions for the November elections?

Before the 2006 elections, we predicted that if the swing away from the Republicans continued, “Republicans will lose elections they would otherwise win.” Now we offer the reverse prediction: if libertarians continue to lead the independents away from Obama, Democrats will lose 2010 midterm elections they would otherwise win.

If you are the type who counts votes and follows political races closely, or if you are just hoping for a more libertarian world like I am, this study is worth reading.