With Turkey seeming to veer sharply away from the West (for some interesting commentary on this, go — h/t Andrew Sullivan – here), there are bound to be questions as to who has messed up.
Writing in the New York Times yesterday, Thomas Friedman pointed a finger at the EU.
After a decade of telling the Turks that if they wanted E.U. membership they had to reform their laws, economy, minority rights and civilian-military relations – which the Erdogan government systematically did – the E.U. leadership has now said to Turkey: “Oh, you mean nobody told you? We’re a Christian club. No Muslims allowed.” The E.U.’s rejection of Turkey, a hugely bad move, has been a key factor prompting Turkey to move closer to Iran and the Arab world.
The EU has not, in fact, finally rejected Turkey, but the long dance over EU membership has indeed done much to alienate the Turks. That said, the idea that Turkey should join the Brussels union was never realistic, however cynically useful an enticement it might have been during the Cold War years. What’s more, despite Turkey’s rapid economic development, what was once simply a bad idea could now prove to be catastrophic, thanks, somewhat paradoxically, to the far greater sway that the EU now has over those who live within its borders. The last 20 or 30 years have seen a massive devolution of power upwards within the EU. What is decided in Brussels and Strasbourg now has far greater impact on people in Germany, say, or the U.K., than was imaginable a couple of decades ago. To admit Turkey (a country that is in time set to become the most populous within the union) into the EU would thus be to give the Anatolian heartland a say on how the European heartland should conduct itself. Why that makes any sense eludes me.
While we should be under no illusions about Prime Minister Erdogan – not so much a nationalist as an unpleasant Islamist thug with, as Brits say, “form” – Turkey is an important nation that needs to be treated seriously, with respect and, if possible, with friendship. The idea that it should be crammed into the EU is, however, a characteristic project of today’s political elite: top-down, arrogant, and in denial of the realities of history, culture, and popular consent. To apply Friedman’s phrase to an entirely different end, it would be “hugely bad move.” It should be rejected.