Sometimes it takes a little while, but the Corner gets results, even in matters of geopolitical energy. Way back in February 22, under the headline, “Nice New Pipeline You’ve Got There. Shame If Something Happened to It,” I wrote of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline:
Still, halting the certification process is a temporary stop; the pipeline is still there, constructed, waiting to be used. It is not difficult to envision a scenario where the German government finds some excuse to reopen the certification process and start using the pipeline, after issuing the appropriate pro forma objections to Putin’s actions. Up until very recently, the German government didn’t seem all that troubled by the thought of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And as Elliott Abrams laid out, the two most recent German chancellors, Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel put a lot of political capital into the Nord Stream 2 project.
Of course, if something happened to make the Nord Stream 2 pipeline unusable, it is a different story. Hey, what is Andreas Malm doing these days? Where are those eco-radicals when we really need them?
Who will rid me of this meddlesome pipeline? Sounds like someone listened!
Europe was racing on Tuesday to investigate possible sabotage behind sudden and unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea, infrastructure at the heart of an energy crisis since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while Denmark’s prime minister and Russia, which slashed its gas deliveries to Europe after Western sanctions, said it could not be ruled out. But who might be behind any foul play, if proven, and a motive were far from clear.
Sweden’s Maritime Authority issued a warning about two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the day after a leak on the nearby Nord Stream 2 pipeline was discovered that prompted Denmark to restrict shipping and impose a small no fly zone. . . .
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said sabotage could not be ruled out. “We are talking about three leaks with some distance between them, and that’s why it is hard to imagine that it is a coincidence,” she said.
A second European source, when asked if there was specific intelligence indicating sabotage, said: “Not specific yet, but it seems this pressure failure can only happen when a pipe is completely cut. Which pretty much says it all.”
Three leaks in two days? Wow, that’s a shame! Sounds like the pipeline’s falling apart and just won’t be a reliable way to get natural gas from Russia to Germany. I guess hopes of Germany and Russia eventually putting aside their differences over the invasion of Ukraine and reestablishing long-term German dependence on Russian energy just won’t happen for the foreseeable future. Just terrible luck for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, who clearly thought a cold winter with limited energy supplies would make Germany and other European countries come crawling back to the negotiating table.
Just about anyone could have cut the pipeline, but whoever it was, they wanted to make sure the Nord Stream pipelines would not be an option for a long time.