If McCain wins tonight, then I don’t think there’s any question he finishes up with a plurality of delegates — although he could be forced into a convention. With Giuliani gone, McCain will win New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. He’ll probably get more delegates from California than Romney does. He and Huckabee are the leaders in winner-take-all Missouri and Oklahoma, and he’ll win Arizona.

That means that Romney’s strategy on Super Tuesday is to win the South. I just don’t buy it.

On the other hand, Romney still has a chance in this thing if he wins Florida tonight. He’s closed the gap to 9,000 votes as I write this. The race is extremely close…