Why Is Israel Waiting to Be Attacked Again?

Iran is undeterred. Despite the decimation of its terrorist proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic remains unflinching in its resolve to attack the Jewish state directly.

In April, Iran attacked Israel directly with over 300 drones and missiles, only a handful of which penetrated Israeli airspace. Tehran reprised the attack in early October, sending 180 missiles raining down on Israeli targets. And yet, despite the relative success of that volley in striking its objectives, the attack produced only minor material damage on the ground and zero Israeli casualties. Israel responded proportionately to both attacks with calibrated assaults weeks after the original provocation — signals designed to communicate both Israel’s resolve to defend itself and its willingness to de-escalate the spiraling conflict. But Iran seems disinclined to take the off-ramp it has been offered.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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Iran is undeterred. Despite the decimation of its terrorist proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic remains unflinching in its resolve to attack the Jewish state directly.

In April, Iran attacked Israel directly with over 300 drones and missiles, only a handful of which penetrated Israeli airspace. Tehran reprised the attack in early October, sending 180 missiles raining down on Israeli targets. And yet, despite the relative success of that volley in striking its objectives, the attack produced only minor material damage on the ground and zero Israeli casualties. Israel responded proportionately to both attacks with calibrated assaults weeks after the original provocation — signals designed to communicate both Israel’s resolve to defend itself and its willingness to de-escalate the spiraling conflict. But Iran seems disinclined to take the off-ramp it has been offered.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.