I don’t believe that events often have single explanations. We’re complicated, and the things we do are the results of our many components, desires, thoughts, stupidities, etc. But doesn’t McCain’s popularity suggest that “the war” remains an issue of fundamental importance? That’s the one thing that separates him from the rest of the Republican field. And it suggests that “winning the war” or “running from the war” will be important themes in the fall.

I’m not a poll-reader, and I am notoriously bad at predicting election outcomes, but doesn’t this seem right?