The overriding question here at the Conservative Party Conference in Blackpool is whether Gordon Brown will call an election or not. My personal guess is about 60-40 that he will, the 60 representing the massive poll lead he currently has and the 40 representing his famous caution (or “cowardice” as some unkind souls are putting it). Today’s publicity stunt announcing troop withdrawals from Basra – contradicting what he said beside the President at Camp David – might actually change that to 70-30. There are also rumors circulating that the Treasury has been told to pull together a public spending statement at very short notice, which might indicate a give-away budget, a British version of pork. Perhaps that makes it 80-20.

This has led to a curious anomaly. The Tories’ best chance for survival is to put on a strong performance asking Brown to “bring it on,” so that he, erm, doesn’t. They have certainly been overperforming with strong speeches, strong policy announcements and a retreat from touchy-feely greeniness that has left some people here (who had invested a lot in this Tory version of the crunchy con philosophy) fuming. Defense Spokesman Liam Fox and treasury shadow George Osborne have been particularly good, as was rising star Michael Gove, author of the Steynian tract Celsius 7/7. Most of the delegates are extremely happy with this atmosphere. I bumped into the excellent Spectator journalist Fraser Nelson at the ConservativeHome reception, and his view is that the party is “fey” – experiencing the happiness of one who knows he is doomed.

For those who are interested, my own little event “Cool Thinking on Climate Change,” was very well attended and my remarks seemed to go down well, with a nice write-up from ConservativeHome. When I get the text of my remarks posted on the CEI site, I’ll put a link up on Planet Gore.

Oh, and it has been inspiring to see the intelligence and drive of a new generation of free-market activists from organizations like the Taxpayers’ Alliance. There’s a lot of young conservative talent over there.