Wicked Donald Trump is ruining the market for wind turbines, that steampunk technology of the future (allegedly), or so the story goes. But wait, what is this (emphasis added)?
Europe’s leading wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas, has shelved plans to open its biggest factory in Poland, citing sluggish demand in its core European market. Vestas announced last year that it would build the plant outside Szczecin, close to the Baltic Sea coast, to make blades used in powerful wind turbines.
However, the Danish group has now decided to suspend its investment in a facility that was initially expected to open in 2026 and employ more than 1,000 people. The company told the Financial Times that the plans had been “paused due to lower than projected demand for offshore wind in Europe”.
A day or so before, meanwhile, Kai Wu, a vice president of Goldwind, a Chinese wind turbine manufacturer, had told the FT that he understood the West’s supply chain concerns but foregoing Chinese wind turbines would be an expensive choice:
China’s cost advantage in turbine manufacturing had grown “huge” at about “40 per cent, at least” compared with western rivals. Greater turbine costs result in higher electricity prices as the cost of installation is passed on to consumers.
The FT:
Countries around the world are struggling to execute decarbonisation policies while reducing their economic and technological dependence on China over national security concerns.
Western officials have been highly critical of Beijing’s industrial policy, which they allege has led to overcapacity and below-cost products. Last year, the EU launched a subsidy investigation into Chinese wind turbine companies. The bloc is also planning to make it more difficult for Chinese operators to take part in public tenders and auctions for renewable subsidies.
In the UK, officials have been reviewing the security implications of Chinese-manufactured technology.
I could spare them the time, expense, and trouble. The security implications are terrible.
The FT:
China’s clean energy investment reached more than $625bn last year, almost doubling since 2015, according to International Energy Agency data. Companies in the country produce more than 80 per cent of the world’s wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage batteries. State support, fierce local competition and technological breakthroughs have resulted in steep falls in costs. [Emphasis added.]
I would also add scare quotes around the “clean” in clean energy. Renewables are not particularly clean, nor (with wind being far worse in this respect than solar) are they particularly reliable (the wind doesn’t always blow) or efficient; Moreover, although this is fiercely debated, their life expectancy is considerably shorter than the 20-25 years that is usually cited, itself not the most impressive of numbers.
Oh yes, from Wind Systems in 2021:
Even though the energy produced by wind turbines is renewable, the sober truth is that much of the materials used to manufacture a turbine are anything but.
And as more and bigger turbines will be the norm for multiple offshore and land-based wind farms planned in the U.S., the need to acquire as much of these rare-earth materials will become an even larger necessity in the coming years.
A single industrial-size wind turbine can require as much as three metric tons of copper and permanent magnets composed of rare earths, according to Dan McGroarty, Advisory Board Member with USA Rare Earth LLC, a U.S.-based company developing the Round Top rare earth and critical minerals project in Texas. Of the 17 rare earths, a wind turbine uses about a ton of four of them: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. And even more copper is required for grid transmission.
Among the rare earths covered by (even) tighter export Chinese restrictions are, wait for it, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.