D.J. McGuire, who runs the China e-Lobby information group and is the author

of “Dragon in the Dark: How and Why Communist China Helps Our Enemies in the

War on Terror,” has the following comments on my Diary entries about East

Asia.

“PRC-Taiwan: we heard a few more threats centered around 2008, when Chen

Shui-bian will have the new ROC constitution ready. My guess is the invasion

may come a little earlier. Jiang Zemin is clearly not going anywhere as CMC

Chairman, and he’s starting to talk about booting Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao

in 2007. That would be a major coup for him and his faction. Can it be done?

Up in the air, but I wouldn’t be surprise if, say, in October 2007 (just

before the CCP Congress) Jiang pulls his own ‘October surprise’ and starts a

war, especially if (a) the Middle East is still taking up our time, and (b)

Kerry is in the WH. Kerry actually backed ‘one country, two systems’ for

Taiwan (I can find the link if you want it).

“As for Japan, I think if Koizumi et al get too close to the PRC, they could

lose the LDP to Shintaro Ishihara, Governor (Mayor) of Tokyo. Ishihara,

best known here for The Japan That Can Say No, has advocated Tibet and

Taiwanese independence, and is easily the most popular politician in Japan.

“Sergeant Jenkins: There are a number of people (mostly his U.S. family) who

insist Jenkins was kidnapped, rather than a defector. They did a decent job

debunking the Army’s evidence against him, letters from NK he supposedly

wrote (which the Army later lost). I agree with you, if he defected, nail

him to the wall. I’m just not sure he actually defected.”

D.J. also tells me that the expatriate Uighurs he and I

have written

about are putting together an East Turkestan government in exile, and making

the rounds looking for support. Their Constitution is largely modeled on the

US version.