Would Maine Democratic Governor Janet Mills Really Be a Strong Senate Candidate?

Today’s Morning Jolt focuses on another dramatic development in Maine, but elsewhere in the state, this morning’s Bangor Daily News reports, “By not making an explicit decision on running for the U.S. Senate, Gov. Janet Mills is causing several Democrats to hold off on deciding whether or not to challenge U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in 2026.”

Now, the first thing to remember is that polite, soft-spoken moderate Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins sits upon a throne of skulls of opponents who underestimated her. Every six years, some Democrat jumps into the Senate race, convinced that this is the year that the purplish state will send Collins packing. And every six years, Collins just crushes her opponent on Election Day. Her last reelection, in 2020, was perhaps her most amazing, as Democratic challenger Sara Gideon led every pre-election poll, sometimes by a lot; The Economist concluded Gideon had a 69 percent chance of winning. But in the end, it wasn’t even all that close. Collins won reelection, 51 percent to 42 percent. Every pollster in Maine deserves to get eaten by a monster from a Stephen King novel; keep this in mind when Maine Democrats talk about Collins not having a high job approval rating.

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Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty is the senior political correspondent of National Review.

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Today’s Morning Jolt focuses on another dramatic development in Maine, but elsewhere in the state, this morning’s Bangor Daily News reports, “By not making an explicit decision on running for the U.S. Senate, Gov. Janet Mills is causing several Democrats to hold off on deciding whether or not to challenge U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in 2026.”

Now, the first thing to remember is that polite, soft-spoken moderate Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins sits upon a throne of skulls of opponents who underestimated her. Every six years, some Democrat jumps into the Senate race, convinced that this is the year that the purplish state will send Collins packing. And every six years, Collins just crushes her opponent on Election Day. Her last reelection, in 2020, was perhaps her most amazing, as Democratic challenger Sara Gideon led every pre-election poll, sometimes by a lot; The Economist concluded Gideon had a 69 percent chance of winning. But in the end, it wasn’t even all that close. Collins won reelection, 51 percent to 42 percent. Every pollster in Maine deserves to get eaten by a monster from a Stephen King novel; keep this in mind when Maine Democrats talk about Collins not having a high job approval rating.